Climate change could cause coffee apocalypse

It’s hard to believe the fuel on which working people depend is nearing extinction, but without swift action on climate change, the early morning mug of coffee could
soon be lost.

Research conducted by scientists at the Kew Royal Botanic Gardens (RBG) in 2012 suggested all but 0.3 percent of the Coffea arabica plants in the world (the crop on which we rely for 70 percent of the global coffee supply) could die out by 2080. Unsettling many a coffee lover, the researchers found the crop is highly susceptible to climate change.

The studies showed arabica is a highly sensitive species. In a best-case scenario, unchecked climate change could reduce the species by 65 percent. “This means that, if we do not roll up our sleeves and push the breeding efforts to create more drought/high temperature resistant varieties now, we (well, our children and grandchildren) may have to get used to drinking robusta coffee”, says Leo Lombardini, Deputy Director of World Coffee Research (WCR).

For those of us who like to obsess over ‘proper coffee’, arabica is the crop responsible for near enough every decent cup of coffee in the developed world. A refusal to protect the species could leave consumers with no option but to make do with a more bitter-tasting beverage. With demand for the expensive stuff soaring and key developing nations, particularly China, beginning to show an interest, the realisation could not have come at a worse time.

More important is the impact this might have on millions of coffee-reliant individuals. “Coffee plays an important role in supporting livelihoods and generating income, and has become part of our modern society and culture. The extinction of arabica coffee is a startling and worrying prospect”, said Aaron Davis, Senior Research Leader of Plant resources at RBG, who went on to add that the purpose of the report was not to provide “scaremonger predictions”, but to establish a baseline on which we can build.

What happens without it?
In Uganda, coffee is still a major cash crop and a core pillar of the predominantly low-income economy, accounting for between 20 and 30 percent of the country’s total foreign exchange earnings. One in five inhabitants owe all or a large part of their earnings to coffee and, given it makes up 60 percent of annual export revenues, without it, millions of Ugandans would struggle to make a living.

It’s on the ‘Mountains of the Moon’, along the country’s border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, that the lion’s share of arabica coffee is grown, though climate change mapping by Oxfam shows suitable conditions are becoming increasingly hard to come by. At present, arabica growth is only possible at altitudes above 1,400m, but, if global temperatures continue to increase at the current rate, that threshold will rise, putting the coffee plant in direct competition with important crops and protected areas. What’s more, with dry spells lasting longer and the rainy seasons becoming more difficult to predict, without a sustainable solution the losses are likely to extend into the hundreds of millions of US dollars and plunge thousands of farmers into poverty.

With the realisation slowly setting in that the crop is under threat, those with a stake in the coffee trade are looking to prolong arabica’s lifespan, specifically by storing the plants in seed banks and living collections or by looking at ways of boosting sustainability. “The coffee industry must protect its supply. Nobody is going to do it for them”, says Timothy Schilling, Executive Director of WCR at the Borlaug Institute, Texas A&M University. “I think that’s what many companies are realising more and more. They can’t do it alone and they need to come together in a unified way to tackle such a huge problem.”

The 2014 report A Bitter Cup: Climate Change Profile of Global Production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee adds salt to the wound by claiming climate change will reduce the global land space suitable for coffee by about 50 percent. Exasperated by the long lead time of solutions and a slow uptake in addressing the issue, the 100-million-plus people who depend on coffee for their livelihoods worldwide are nearing crisis point. According to the Coffee Barometer 2014 report, the commodity is under threat because the biggest producers are also the areas most susceptible to climate change, which raises the question of how those in the coffee business can arrest the slide.

“We haven’t seen yet companies or governments deliberately investing in protecting the coffee sector against climate change”, says Anthony Wolimba, Coordinator of the Climate Action Network Uganda, hosted by Oxfam. “Only a few donors like the [United States Agency for International Development] have recently made an effort to support policy issues and a few initiatives in improving resilience against climate change. Largely, it is the small-scale farmers who are left with the risk. Businesses are in for a profit.”

Carbon neutral coffee
Following a stint of unseasonal rains and less than favourable conditions in Brazil, coffee traded at a record high of $2.1110 a pound in August, 80 percent higher than at the beginning of 2014. Yet the responsibility for preserving the plant does not lie solely with farmers, and all parts of the supply chain have a role to play.

“The world market share of sustainable coffee that adheres to social, environmental and economic standards has grown rapidly in recent years”, according to the Coffee Barometer 2014. “Coffee companies, traders and roasters are making significant investments in coffee farming through partnerships with public and private institutions in many countries.”

The primary focus for both retailers and consumer organisations at the present is carbon neutral coffee and minimising the environmental impact of each stage in the supply chain. True, skirting more sustainable means of production can sometimes bring savings in the short term, but key names are beginning to acknowledge the importance of protecting the industry’s interests in the long term.

Starbucks, for example, last year bought a 600-acre coffee farm in Costa Rica to more closely monitor the issues facing arabica and perhaps find a solution. According to the company, climate change is a “big priority”, and, by choosing to shrink its environmental footprint, Starbucks is spearheading progressive climate change policy on the frontline.

“However, we are still at the early stages of understanding the full implications of climate change on coffee production, and exactly what can be done in terms of adaptation and resilience”, says RBG’s Davis. “As of yet there are no clear priorities, as the coffee growing landscape is vast and complicated. At the present time large sectors of the coffee industry are not in the position where they can make good decisions in order to ensure sustainability. In the short term, at least, many in the business wouldn’t view climate change as their main concern.”

Schilling says not enough is being done to protect coffee against climate change, “given the importance of coffee as one of the world’s most valuable commodities, where over 125 million people in tropical countries depend on it for their livelihood… Having said that, over the last five to six years, the industry has started to recognise the importance of climate change on coffee and you can see some industry initiatives starting up to address issues related to climate change, like our own WCR”.

Should the issue of climate change be ignored, however, not only will millions of people struggle to survive, but businesses across the globe will be without the resources to serve their customers as they see fit. Granted, the impact of climate change on coffee is still little understood, but what’s clear is all parties must unite to find workable solutions and, crucially, bring millions of individuals away from the poverty trap.