Rousseff to emerge from Lula’s shadow

It was one of the few public events in which the often stern-looking Rousseff showed a more human face and appeared without her mentor and political benefactor, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Buoyed by a roaring economy and the immense popularity of Lula, his chief of staff Rousseff has narrowed the gap in opinion polls with front-runner Jose Serra, the governor of Sao Paulo state from the opposition PSDB party.

But analysts caution that the race has yet to begin in earnest and Rousseff must still emerge from Lula’s long shadow to consolidate her own image and define her policies to win the election on October 3.

“She has yet to present herself to the Brazilian electorate,” said Christopher Garman, Latin America analyst with Eurasia Group consultants in New York.

“And she has yet to learn to do so convincingly.”

Her first challenge will be to convince the rank and file of the Workers’ Party, or PT, that she is as good as Lula says. The leftist former union leader, who is barred from running for a third straight term, has virtually imposed Rousseff’s candidacy despite grumbling in the party, which she only joined in 2001.

Proxy for Lula?
In recent months the 64-year-old Lula has accompanied his protege every step of the way, from ribbon-cutting events and television spots to closed-door cabinet meetings.

As a result, her name-recognition in opinion polls has shot up but many Brazilians still see her as a proxy for Lula rather than a candidate in her own right, pollsters say.

“I don’t know much about her but she’d be a continuation of Lula,” said Jose Silva dos Santos, a 52-year-old taxi driver in downtown Brasilia, echoing a common view.

Despite Rousseff’s stiff public persona, Lula thinks her management skills will make her a good president. He also says Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is ready for a woman president after he shattered the class barrier to become its first leader that didn’t hail from an elite background.

Still, there has been speculation in political circles that Rousseff, 62, would simply be an “interim president” until Lula can run again in 2014, a claim he dismissed in an interview with O Estado de S.Paulo.

“I have total confidence in Dilma, that she’ll know how to do the right things for this country,” he said.

Lula’s predecessor and longtime political rival Fernando Henrique Cardoso, also of Serra’s PSDB party, publicly belittled Rousseff recently, referring to her as a mere puppet of her boss, foreshadowing a likely theme in the campaign ahead.

Policy risk
Most investors see little risk that either of the leading candidates would stray far from Lula’s market-friendly policies, though some prefer Serra for his executive experience and the PSDB’s more centrist political stance.

Rousseff and much of the PT favor a larger government role in the economy, mainly through big state enterprises.

“This talk of government-induced growth and big state enterprises has us worried. It has failed in the past,” said Rodrigo Nogueira, a partner in the Brasilia-based construction firm JC Gontijo Engenheria.

“She needs to address these concerns soon.”

The daughter of Bulgarian immigrants and a left-wing militant in her youth, the gruff career civil servant is often referred to in political circles as the “iron lady.”

For much of last year, she stuck to an intense agenda while battling lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system, of which doctors say she has been cured.

But Rousseff remains a political novice who often struggles to connect with her audience, a potential pitfall that even her supporters acknowledge.

“Dilma doesn’t have the skills like someone who ran in several elections,” PT president-elect Jose Eduardo Dutra told O Globo newspaper.

“Her opponent also lacks charisma, so it evens out,” he added, referring to the often dour-faced Serra.

Lula’s blessing and proven political skills are sure to work in her favor in the campaign. But Rousseff faces a formidable opponent in Serra, and her stance on some controversial issues could pose problems.

Opposition legislators have summoned her to testify on her support for legalising abortion, a delicate act in an overwhelmingly Catholic society.

Analysts say Rousseff’s lack of charisma and political savvy may not cost her the election but, if she wins, it could make governing with notoriously volatile allies difficult.

“She has difficulty dealing with politicians – voters won’t notice that but her allies may jump on it,” said Cristiano Noronha, head of political Arko Advice.

“Becoming hostage to her allies is Dilma’s biggest risk.”