Drug resistance could kill 10 million a year, suggests government report
A study has warned that drug resistant infections could cost the world over $100trn by 2050 if world leaders do not take action
Former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill led the government's recent report into the economic implications of Antimicrobial Resistance. He has warned that the economic cost is likely to be significant, as well as the numbers of people likely to die as a result
The world’s first economic analysis of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR), commissioned by UK Prime Minister David Cameron, shows that drug resistance could lead to 10m deaths annually and reduce global GDP by between two and 3.5 percent by 2050.
Former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill, who led the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, stated in the report: “drug resistant infections already kill hundreds of thousands a year globally, and by 2050 that figure could be more than 10m.”
According to O’Neill, AMR poses an even bigger threat than climate change in the near-term
“The economic cost will also be significant, with the world economy being hit by up to $100trn by 2050 if we do not take action,” he added. He warned that the total figure could be double that when other aspects are taken into consideration – such as increased pressure on healthcare systems and secondary impacts on health. It would cost Europe alone $15trn, according to the review.
The study, which uses research carried out by consulting firms KPMG and Rand, takes a similar format to a 2006 paper projecting the economic toll of climate change. The full report, to be released in 2016, will look at possible solutions to the problem – such as reducing the use of anti-infective drugs, providing incentives for drug development and producing vaccines alongside other possible alternatives.
Experts have expressed concern over the recent lack of investment in the antibiotics field as more expensive drugs, which promise higher returns, continue to attract greater interest. But O’Neill believes Merck’s recent $9.5bn acquisition of American biotech firm Cubist could represent a turn of events, as companies finally move to bolster the fight against AMR.
Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust, warned of the potentially devastating effects of AMR in a statement when the report was first commissioned. “Drug-resistant bacteria, viruses and parasites are driving a global health crisis,” he said. “It threatens not only our ability to treat deadly infections, but almost every aspect of modern medicine: from cancer treatment to caesarean sections.”
According to O’Neill, AMR poses an even bigger threat than climate change in the near-term, with developing economies likely to be hardest hit; the report estimates that a quarter of deaths in Nigeria by 2050 will be caused by drug-resistant infections. “We cannot allow these projections to materialise for any of us, especially our fellow citizens in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and Mint (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) world,” O’Neill stated in a report by Sky News.
“It’s clear that international action is needed now if we are to prevent lives being lost unnecessarily,” he said in a statement.
