Copenhagen billions key to climate talks success

But there’s only months to figure out a way to start deploying the cash, say the world body, negotiators and greens.

A
sense of despair has shrouded UN climate talks after what many say was
a disappointing outcome of last December’s Copenhagen summit at which
world leaders crafted a non-binding political accord in the final hours
of the meeting.

While groundbreaking in some ways, the accord
left nations struggling to figure out how to achieve the ultimate
objective of years of negotiations: a tougher pact that succeeds the
existing Kyoto Protocol and strengthens the fight against climate
change.

Money could be one way to try to restore momentum, and trust, some analysts feel.

“There
needs to be some kind of mutual understanding of where to move forward.
My sense is that finance is a good one for that,” said Kim Carstensen,
head of environmental group WWF’s global climate initiative.

The
accord promises $10bn a year in aid from 2010-12, rising to $100bn a
year from 2020 and scores of countries have submitted action plans to
curb emissions by 2020, effectively supporting the document.

It
also makes clear that steps by all major emitting nations, rich and
poor, were key to limit the impacts of rising seas, floods and more
disease as the planet heats up.

“I think the finance part of the
accord is the critical test of credibility and I don’t think any
hedging about implementation of that will be seen kindly by developing
countries,” a senior climate negotiator said on condition of anonymity.

Recently,
the head of the UN Environment Programme, expected developing nations
could be able to apply for some of the $30bn promised in the accord
within months. If that didn’t happen, that part of the accord would be
in trouble, he said.

Poorer nations feel the rich have broken
past climate aid promises and aren’t doing enough to cut their own
emissions, creating years of mistrust that have undermined climate
talks.

Yet China, India, Brazil and other big emitters have
ramped up efforts to curb the growth of their emissions and expect the
rich, particularly the US, to finally step up.

China has the
world’s third largest wind capacity, behind the US and Germany. Growth
last year was highest in the world at 13 gigawatts, bringing China’s
total to 25 GW. The government has set a 100 GW target for 2020 – about
twice Australia’s total power generation capacity.

Negotiating table
Getting
back around the negotiating table is also crucial. The chaotic scenes
in the final hours of Copenhagen created doubts over the UN’s ability
to deliver a tougher climate pact.

“We’ve gone into a whole new
level of complexity in terms of the international change regime and its
future,” said Stephen Howes, a director of the Crawford School of
Economics and Government at the Australian National University in
Canberra.

“There’s nothing in that political agreement [Accord]
which says how it will be converted into a legal treaty, when it will
be converted or even whether it will be converted,” he said.

Some negotiators say ways must be found to help the UN get back to work and try to resolve impasses.

In
a first step, a select group of negotiators decided Germany would host
an extra session of UN climate talks in April, the first of the year,
ahead of the main Nov 29-Dec 10 meeting in Cancun in Mexico. But the
April meeting would not be a formal negotiation session.

Over
the coming months, nations must also try to settle once and for all
what the new climate pact might look like. The accord, which was not
formally adopted by the meeting in Copenhagen, adds an extra layer to
the existing negotiations.

For several years, nations have been
working on ways to succeed the Kyoto Protocol and negotiations have
followed a twin-track path.

One looks at expanding Kyoto from
2013 and the other looks at longer-term climate actions and includes
the US, which never ratified Kyoto.

Prior to the final hours of
Copenhagen, these twin tracks were the only negotiating paths to guide
the talks and have yielded hundreds of pages of complex negotiating
texts.

“The Copenhagen Accord provides guidance,” another senior
climate official said. Talks this year shouldn’t just try to return to
negotiating the existing texts and pretend Copenhagen didn’t happen,
said the official, who requested anonymity.

There also remains
uncertainty on the fate of the Kyoto Protocol. Many rich nations want a
new pact that commits all major emitters to emissions curbs, not just
wealthy nations, and say Kyoto hasn’t worked. The Accord barely
mentions it.

One way forward may be to put aside efforts to clinch a new legally binding pact by Mexico or by 2011.

The focus should be getting nations to meet emissions cut pledges under the Accord, Howes said.

But for that to happen, actions must speak louder than words.

“If
China can show it can drive a wedge between its economic growth and the
growth in its emissions and show that it is on a low-carbon growth
path, then that would generate more momentum,” he said.