Long term infrastructure shaken to the core

Described by Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan as the worst crisis to have hit Japan since World War II, the earthquake and tsunami catastrophe that hit Japan in March has had a devastating effect on the country. The Japanese National Police Agency confirmed 14,704 deaths, and 10, 969 people missing across eighteen prefectures. Striking precisely at 14:46 JST (05:46 UTC) on Friday, 11 March 2011, the quake occurred off the north east coast of the country, with its epicentre located approximately 70km east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tōhoku, the nearest town being Sendai. According to a senior science adviser at the US Geological Survey, the quake ruptured a patch of the earth’s crust 240km long and 80km across.

Officially named the Great East Japan Earthquake, the quake racked up a magnitude of 8.9 (Mw), a so called undersea megathrust earthquake, a variant defined by the tectonic activity occurring at subduction zones at destructive plate boundaries, where one tectonic plate is prone to dangerously subduct under another. Large sections get stuck in the dip of the plate boundary, which is shallow. Earthquakes of the megathrust type count among the world’s most powerful, with moment magnitudes (Mw) that can exceed 9.0. Since 1900, all six earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater have been of this particular variety.

In the case of the Japanese monster quake, scientists have been unable to determine – or agree, at least – which exact plates were involved in what triggered the catastrophe, but the amount of slip on the interface between the two plates is believed to have been as generous as 5–10 metres resulting in uplift of the seafloor above the rupture zone by several metres. So far the most powerful earthquake to have hit Japan, the Great East Japan Earthquake was one of the five most severe earthquakes to have ever been noted since the world seismology records began in 1900. Further evidence of the force of the quake, it managed to move the city of  Honshu all of 2.4 m (8ft) east, shifting the earth on its axis by 10 cm (4in). Sparking several nuclear accidents, of which the most serious by far was the catastrophe connected to the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, which resulted in radiation leaks so severe it triggered an ongoing level 7.0 event and a 20km (12mi) evacuation zone. The Fukushima accident was caused by the cooling systems being knocked out. The severity of the disaster was so grave that it’s been compared to the notorious Chernobyl incident, which was also rated a very high level 7.0. Although the two accidents differ a great deal from one another, the Fukushima nuclear disaster involves the prospect of a long∞term health and environmental hazard and has necessitated an expansive clean-up operation.

Severe level of devastation
The quake itself caused serious damage, but the highly destructive tsunami it set in motion added significantly to the level of ruin. Involving waves of up to 38 metres, some of which advanced up to 10km inland, the tsunami was able to form as the epicentre of the quake was about 24.4km, a level of depth shallow enough to set off a tsunami. Moving forward with remarkable force, the speed of a tsunami wave travelling across an open ocean is comparable to a commercial jet’s ground speed.

The aftermath of the disaster caused a massive crisis with a huge economic impact. In addition to significant loss of life, the tsunami left over 125,000 buildings battered or destroyed in its wake, as well as extensive structural damage to roads and railways – even the collapse of a dam. Across the northeast of Japan, 7,735 school buildings were levelled to the ground at worst. Students were forced to jostle for space in the few schools that are still standing. Evacuation centres were filled to the brink within hours of the disaster, and schools and other public buildings doubled as homes to scores of evacuees.

The tsunami created over 300,000 refugees in the Tōhoku region, and brought on shortages of food, water, shelter, medicine and fuel for survivors. About 4.4m households in northeastern Japan were left without electricity, and around 1.5m households were left without water. Preparing for further disasters, residents of Japan, and not only those in the worst affected areas, went into defence mechanism, hoarding food and other essentials.

“Following the disaster, people started to desperately stock up on food and other basics in order to prepare for another catastrophe. It was spooky to enter supermarkets at the time, as the shelves were completely empty, even in Tokyo. The only products available, with any luck at all, were biscuits and sweets,” says Yoshii Shimuzi, a Tokyo resident.

Adversely affecting many other countries and territories outside Japan, shortly after the quake shattered the grounds, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Hawaii issued tsunami watches and warnings for various locations in the Pacific, while The United States West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center went on to do the same for the coastal areas of larger parts of California, as well as the entire region of Oregon, and the western part of Alaska. In California and Oregon, up to 8ft high tsunami surges hit some areas, damaging docks and harbours and causing over $10m of damage. Meanwhile, waves up to 1.6ft high hit the eastern seaboard of the Philippines, and a number of houses along the coast in Jayapura, Indonesia, were destroyed. Estimated damage to public infrastructure in Hawaii reached $3m, with a fair share of private properties being damaged, too. Many households of Peru also suffered a significant blow, with over 300 homes damaged as a result of the tsunami. Other affected regions included Chile – where about 200 houses took a beating due to waves of up to 9.8ft – and the Galapagos Islands.

In response to the crisis, the Japanese government mobilised the Self–Defence Forces, a move that was further supported by efforts put in by other countries sending out search and rescue teams. Charities based in Japan and other parts of the world also came to the rescue. Since the disaster began, charitable organisations such as the Japanese Red Cross have provided first aid and emergency healthcare to survivors of the natural disaster, and have supplied 70,000 temporary homes with an appliance package consisting of domestic essentials items such as rice cookers, microwave and kettles. The scheme has benefited around 280,000 people in the three hardest hit prefectures of Miyagi, Fukushima and Iwate.

Having set off a chain reaction of disasters, analysts predict that the earthquake and associated tsunami catastrophe will rack up costs exceeding $300bn, making it the most expensive natural disaster on record. Early estimates placed insured losses alone at $14.5bn to $34.6bn. In an effort to normalise market conditions, the Bank of Japan offered ¥15trn ($183bn) to the banking system on March 14. Meanwhile, Japan’s parliament has passed a ¥4tn ($49bn, £30bn) emergency budget for reconstruction that will help fund new housing for tens of thousands of residents who lost their homes, and help getting affected businesses back on their feet.

The ominous threat of aftershocks
Posing further threat even after it has potentially caused major damage, an earthquake is always accompanied by a menacing entourage. Aftershocks can follow the host quake for up to a year after the event, and general guidelines applied by seismologists indicate that an earthquake’s largest aftershock will be one magnitude smaller than the main quake, meaning that a 7.9 magnitude earthquake could hit the region of Japan as far off in time as March 2012. Immediately following the quake, a number of aftershocks of 5.0 magnitude hit Japan, as well as several with a magnitude exceeding six and even a few measuring seven and a tad above. Japan’s latest national seismic risk map gave a 99 percent chance of at least a magnitude 7.5 quake hitting the region in the next 30 years.

Preceding the major quake, a series of large foreshocks occurred two days before with magnitudes of 7.2 about 25 miles (40 km) away, and continued with three other earthquakes, all of which were greater than magnitude 6, according to the USGS.

Ring of fire
A particularly earthquake–ridden country, Japan is situated along the volatile Pacific Ring of Fire – an aptly named zone around the Pacific Ocean where a major portion of the world’s earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur. To be precise, 90 percent of the world’s earthquakes, and 80 percent of the most large–scale ones strike along the Ring of Fire. Formed by subduction of the Pacific Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, as many as 1,500 earthquakes are » recorded yearly in the zone, and magnitudes as strong as four to six are not uncommon. Mild tremors occur almost daily in one part or another in Japan, causing buildings to shake ever so slightly.

Other characteristics of the Ring of Fire are hot springs and volcanoes, of which Japan is home to many. In fact, as much as ten percent of the world’s active volcanoes are to be found in the country. Rising above the north shore of Lake Inawashiro, Mount Fuji is Japan’s highest volcano, and it’s constructed above a group of overlapping volcanoes. Another notable volcano is Mount Bandai. Formed of several overlapping stratovolcanoes, the largest of which is O–Bandai, the structure of the host volcano is complex. The O–Bandai volcano itself, meanwhile, took shape within a horseshoe-shaped caldera over a period of about 40,000 years, springing up where another volcano, Ko–Bandai, had collapsed in 1888.

Historic earthquakes of Japan
The recent monster earthquake was not the first major quake disaster to hit Japan. Several parts of the country have experienced devastating earthquakes and tidal waves in the past. The Great Kanto Earthquake, the second worst in Japanese history, hit the Kanto plain around Tokyo in 1923 and resulted in the deaths of over 130,000 people, making it the deadliest earthquake ever to strike Japan. The duration of the earthquake is said to have lasted between four and 10 minutes, and the quake had a magnitude of 7.9 on the Richter scale, with its focus deep beneath the Izu Ōshima Island in Sagami Bay.
Also rated high on the list of devastating Japanese earthquakes, the Great Hanshin earthquake, or Kobe earthquake as it’s also called, occurred on Tuesday, January 17, 1995, in the southern part of Hyōgo Prefecture, Japan. It measured 6.8 on the moment magnitude scale (USGS), with tremors lasting for approximately 20 seconds. The focus of the earthquake was located 16km beneath its epicentre, on the northern end of Awaji Island, 20km away from the city of Kobe. Approximately 6,434 people lost their lives as a result of the disaster, of whom about 4,600 were Kobe residents.

Japan’s business terrain suffers
Most industries in Japan have suffered sharp losses since the disaster struck. Encompassing  both immediate problems- with industrial production coming to a sharp halt in many factories- as well as long term issues brought on by costs to cover extensive rebuilding schemes, the cost of the planned works has been estimated at ¥10trn ($122bn). Being one of the most expensive disasters in the history of global insurers, insured losses will amount to figures between $12bn and $25bn, according to risk modelling firm Eqecat. Painting a bleaker picture yet, competitor firm, AIR Worldwide, has estimated losses of $15bn to $35bn – and estimate that excludes the effects of the tsunami.

The automobile industry is another area that has been badly hit. In April, Japan’s domestic sales of cars, trucks and buses fell by a record amount. Down by a staggering 51 percent, production has come to a virtual halt, coupled with broken supply chains. Much to blame is the shortage of parts and the depleted sales are predicted to continue in the coming months.

Not left out of the depressing equation, consumer confidence has taken a significant beating, too. Known for being zealous shoppers with a ceaseless hunger for luxury goods by megabrands such as Gucci, Burberry and Louis Vuitton, Japanese consumers account for a large chunk (as much as 24 percent in 2010, according to a report carried out by Deutsche Bank) of the global luxury industry’s turnover. Unlikely as it would have seemed even during the global recession in 2008, analysts predict that the days of the shopaholic Japanese society has come to an end, at least for the time being. As a reaction to the disaster and the subsequent suffering, materialism has given way to an altogether more subdued mood, where uninhibited spending has little relevance.

It’s difficult to estimate how long the slump in consumer confidence will last, or if it will even inspire a permanent shift in values, but it’s believed that Japanese consumers will put a lid on their excessive spending habits at least for the next five years, with spending set to plummet by as much as 30 percent.

Trying to return to normality as soon as possible after the disaster struck, well-known brands including Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Hermes and Tiffany all began to reopen their stores in Tokyo. Yet retailers still experience uncertainties and practical issues such as persistent electricity blackouts.

The stresses and strains of Tokyo Electric Power Co
Utilities are badly hit, too, and Asia’s biggest power company, Tokyo Electric   Power Co, is in for a big blow as one of its major clients is the Fukushima Daiichi plant. To indicate the scale of Tokyo Electric Power’s losses, the company made a net loss of more than 1 trillion yen for the year, after taking into account costs to scrap its four damaged nuclear reactors and writing off tax assets. Significantly, this is the biggest ever recorded setback for a non-financial Japanese firm. Stepping in to soften the blow of Tokyo Electric Power’s financial strains, the company’s main creditor, bank Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, along with a host of additional lenders, injected 1.9trn yen in emergency loans in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. There’s been an ongoing battle over who should foot the major bill to compensate the power company’s clients. Nearing an agreement in May 2011, and thus saving Asia’s biggest utility from financial ruin, the Japanese Government is likely to announce a scheme to help the company compensate victims affected by the crisis at the crippled and still leaking nuclear plant.

On a practical level, Tokyo Electric Power Co is still struggling to get reactors at its Fukushima Daiichi plant under control, and the company has admitted that it will barely be able to boost its power supply to cover estimated summer demand. A shortage of energy will potentially plunge Japan deeper into economical trouble as it will result in blackouts in central Tokyo, adversely affecting retail businesses and other commercial establishments that heavily rely on a constant supply of power.